Stabilizes on inflows after export miss – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Thailand section notes May exports rose 10.6% year-on-year, below consensus and sharply slower than April’s 23.1%, with agriculture shipments weak but electronics still resilient. The government forecasts exports to grow 8% in 2026 as front-loading fades. In FX, USD/THB fell 0.2% to 33.35 on strong bond and equity inflows, though THB remains one of […]
Hormuz risk premium still fragile – OCBC
OCBC’s FX strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that Brent Oil has dropped sharply on optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a US–Iran deal, but warn markets may be underpricing security risks. They keep their end-2026 Brent forecast at USD80/bbl and expects a gradual drift toward a low USD60 […]
Rangebound performance with debt inflows – Societe Generale
Societe Generale strategists notes that the Indian Rupee (INR) traded broadly flat over the week but outperformed regional peers thanks to debt portfolio inflows. They highlight that broad US Dollar (USD) strength overshadowed moves in Gold and Brent. Domestic bonds rallied as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Malhotra pushed back on tighter policy speculation, […]
Why is the British Pound rising amid UK political instability?
The GBP/USD pair trades with mild gains near 1.3200 during the early European session on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) as markets focus on who might become finance minister under Andy Burnham, and the latest US inflation data has softened expectations for US rate hikes. UK Finance Minister Rachel […]
“Imperative” to return inflation to 2% target
Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of New York President John Williams said in a speech released by text on Thursday that monetary policy remains “well positioned” for the current economy, while warning that inflation may take longer to return to the Fed’s 2% target than previously expected. Key takeaways: Williams pushed back the expected return to […]
Long policy hold supports fragile recovery – UOB
UOB economists Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya note that the Bank of Thailand (BoT) kept its policy rate at 1.00% and is expected to hold this level through 2027. They stress that Thailand’s recovery is narrow, with strength in technology exports but weak household demand and SME credit. They see cost-push inflation as temporary and […]
Stronger Dollar and Fed risks weigh – ING
ING’s Frantisek Taborsky warns that a stronger Dollar and lingering Fed hike risks are pressuring Central and Eastern European currencies. Weaker FX raises inflation concerns for open CEE economies just as higher Oil and food prices loom. Market pricing has reduced rate-hike expectations in Poland and Czech Republic while increasing rate-cut bets in Hungary. Fed […]
US core PCE inflation set to remain elevated in May, keeping Fed on alert
The United States (US) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for May on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. The PCE Price Index is closely watched by market participants because it is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure of inflation and could influence its policy outlook. Anticipating the […]
BoJ’s Tamura: Japan’s neutral rate is about 2%
Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that Japan’s neutral rate is about 2% and it is important to push the policy rate closer to the neutral level to avoid being forced into sharp rate hikes later. Key quotes Japan’s neutral rate is about 2%. I envision rate hikes every few […]
Hawkish RBA tone versus tech risk – ING
ING’s Francesco Pesole says AUD/USD remains under pressure from the tech-led equity sell-off, given the Australian Dollar’s high correlation with semiconductor stocks. Domestically, hotter core inflation should keep Reserve Bank of Australia communication hawkish, even without further hikes. Pesole stays optimistic on a move well above 0.70 in H2, though he flags near-term downside toward […]
