PCE seen re‑accelerating into 2026 – TD Securities
TD Securities forecasts PCE inflation to firm in December, with core PCE at 0.25% m/m and headline at 0.27% m/m, translating to 2.9% and 2.8% y/y respectively. Core CPI is expected to peak around 2.8% y/y in Q2 2026 as higher tariffs lift prices, before sticky inflation in H1 gives way to gradual disinflation in […]
German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment unexpectedly drops to 58.3
German ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment unexpectedly drops to 58.3 in February. Economists expected the sentiment data to have improved to 65.0 from 59.6 in January. The ZEW Survey – Current Situation improves to -65.9 from -72.7 in October, but misses estimates of -65.7. In the Eurozone, the ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment deteriorates to […]
GBP/JPY slips below 208.50 as BoJ-BoE policy gap weighs, UK jobs eyed
The GBP/JPY cross meets with a fresh supply in the vicinity of mid-209.00s during the Asian session on Tuesday and snaps a two-day winning streak. Spot prices drop to the 208.25 region in the last hour, stalling the recent recovery from a nearly two-month low, touched last Thursday. The initial market reaction to Japan’s weak […]
Strong growth and flows support firm Ringgit – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Moses Lim notes that the Malaysian Ringgit is Asia’s best performer this year, supported by robust growth, FDI into data centres and tech supply chains, and firm exports. With inflation contained and Bank Negara Malaysia expected to keep rates unchanged, the bank sees USD/MYR holding around 3.85–3.90 in the near term as MYR strength […]
Weaker European outlook with LNG wave – Societe Generale
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh, Ben Hoff and Jeremy Sellem describe how Winter storm Fern briefly pushed US gas futures above $7/MMBtu before prices fell below $3/MMBtu as storage stayed near the ten‑year average. They argue that softer carbon prices and a large global LNG supply expansion point to lower European gas prices and a […]
EUR/USD holds steady, unfazed by weak Eurozone factory data
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading near 1.1865 at the time of writing. Eurozone factory output data confirmed expectations of a significant decline in December, but the subdued trading activity is keeping the pair broadly unchanged. Industrial Production contracted 1.4% in the Eurozone in December, according to […]
RBNZ guidance to support richer NZD – BNY
BNY’s EMEA Macro Strategist Geoff Yu expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hold rates at 2.25% (February 18) but acknowledges markets are increasingly pricing in tightening as inflation stays stubborn. The bank argues that confirming a shift in direction could help NZD valuations, especially as the currency is relatively underheld. RBNZ can use […]
