The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, trading near 1.1865 at the time of writing. Eurozone factory output data confirmed expectations of a significant decline in December, but the subdued trading activity is keeping the pair broadly unchanged.
Industrial Production contracted 1.4% in the Eurozone in December, according to data released by Destatis earlier on Monday. The market consensus had anticipated a 1.5% monthly reversal, following a downwardly revised 0.3% growth in November, from the 0.7% previously estimated. Year-on-year, production slowed down to a 1.2% growth rate, beyond the 1.3% expected by the market and also beyond November’s 2.5% advance.
The pair has been trading within the last few days’ range. The common currency failed to draw any significant support on Friday, after the release of softer-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which allowed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to ease borrowing costs further, to boost a stalled labour market.
Trading activity remains subdued on Monday. Most Asian markets, including Japan, have been closed by the Lunar New Year holiday, and US markets will also be closed on the President’s Day holiday. Later on the day, the speeches from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Vice Chair of Supervision, Michelle Bowman, and the European Central Bank’s Governor, Joachim Nagel, might provide some distraction in a calm market session, ahead of a busy data week.
Technical Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows the EUR/USD hovering above the rising trendline from mid-January lows now at 1.1855, which, together with the February 11 low, at 1.1833, is providing support to the pair.
Indicators are neutral to negative. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits fractionally below the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands right below 50, reflecting balanced momentum.
Below the mentioned 1.1833, the next target is the early February lows at the 1.1775 area. On the upside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the late January reversal is holding bulls for now at 1.1890, and closing the path towards last week’s highs at 1.1925.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)
The Industrial Production index, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price-adjusted output of industry. It is a widely-followed indicator to gauge the strength in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Last release:
Mon Feb 16, 2026 10:00
Frequency:
Monthly
Actual:
-1.4%
Consensus:
-1.5%
Previous:
0.7%
Source:
Eurostat
Economic Indicator
Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).
Last release:
Mon Feb 16, 2026 10:00
Frequency:
Monthly
Actual:
1.2%
Consensus:
1.3%
Previous:
2.5%
Source:
Eurostat
speeches
