Energy shock implications for ECB policy – ABN AMRO
ABN AMRO economists assess how higher Brent Oil prices could affect eurozone inflation and the ECB. In a mild USD 80 scenario, they see inflation returning to around 2%, while a USD 130 shock lifts 2026 inflation by 1.3pp but leaves 2027 only slightly higher, making second-round effects and the duration of the shock key […]
EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1750 as German Retail Sales fall in January
EUR/USD declines nearly 1%, trading around 1.1740 during the European hours on Monday. The pair struggles as the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure after Germany’s Retail Sales fell 0.9% month-over-month (MoM) in January, undershooting expectations for a 0.2% decline and reversing an upwardly revised 1.2% increase in the previous month. On an annual basis, retail […]
War-driven spike tests risk appetite – UOB
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research highlights a sharp jump in Brent crude after US-Israel strikes on Iran and an OPEC+ decision to raise output. The bank notes Brent has already traded above USD 80/bbl in Asia and warns that a sustained move above last June’s USD 80 peak could spur renewed risk aversion, weighing […]
US Dollar Index hovers around 98.00, five-week highs as Middle East tensions escalate
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, depreciated after reaching five-week highs, hovering around 97.90 during the Asian hours on Monday. However, the downside in the Greenback may be limited as escalating Middle East tensions boost safe-haven demand. The United States (US) and Israel […]
US Dollar Index attracts some buyers to near 98.00 as Middle East conflict fuels demand
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, currently trades near 98.00 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The DXY attracts some buyers as traders seek safe-haven assets amid escalating conflict in the Middle East. The US Dollar received some support […]
Inflation seen higher on base effects – DBS
DBS Group Research expects Indonesia’s February inflation to rise to 4.1% year-on-year, driven by a low base and fading one-off stimulus in administered prices. While most components should stay subdued, elevated precious metal prices are seen lifting personal care costs. The trade surplus is forecast above $3 billion, with a recent US court ruling potentially […]
Policy mix guides 2026 growth path – UOB
UOB’s Ho Woei Chen expects China’s National People’s Congress to set a 2026 real GDP growth target of 4.5–5.0%, with actual growth forecast at 4.7%. The report highlights a likely 2% CPI target, a fiscal deficit near 4% of GDP, more special local government and ultra-long-term treasury bonds, and modest monetary easing via a 10-bps […]
AUD/USD holds firm as US Dollar retreats despite firm PPI
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as the Greenback reverses earlier gains despite stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data. At the time of writing, AUD/USD is trading around 0.7112 and is on track for an eighth consecutive week of gains. The headline PPI rose 0.5% MoM, beating […]
GBP/USD slips as US PPI lifts US Dollar, Middle East risks rise
The Pound Sterling (GBP) drops some 0.10% on Friday as the Greenback is underpinned by a hot inflation report in the US, which prompted investors to price in a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed). Also heightened risks in the Middle East weighed on the GBP/USD pair, which trades at 1.3469 at the time of writing. […]
Weak growth impulse and fiscal risks – Societe Generale
Societe Generale’s Kunal Kundu reviews India’s FY27 Union Budget, highlighting policy continuity and fiscal consolidation in a context of geopolitical strains and currency weakness. The note flags modest allocations to employment schemes, questions execution of six focus areas, and warns that without stronger revenues, capital expenditure may again be cut to meet the 4.3% of […]
