Downside risks build against US Dollar as oil rises – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note EUR/USD has slipped to the upper 1.15s, with sentiment turning bearish despite supportive yield spreads. They link the renewed deterioration to rising Oil prices and concerns over Euro area terms of trade. Spot is now drifting below their narrow fair value estimate of 1.1619, and technical focus […]
Hawkish Fed expectations underpin strength – OCBC
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong highlight that higher Oil prices and renewed US-Iran tensions have pushed global bond yields higher and strengthened the US Dollar, with markets fully pricing a 25bp Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike by October. Fed Governor Barr’s comments that further rate increases may be warranted reinforce this hawkish backdrop, […]
Bank of Canada set to hold interest rates for seventh consecutive meeting
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday. This would be the seventh consecutive gathering with the central bank sitting on the fence. The BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% in July, as widely anticipated. The statement and Governor Tiff Macklem said persistent […]
Geopolitical risk keeps cracks elevated – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note Brent has pushed back above $95/bbl as escalating Persian Gulf tensions revive supply risk and a geopolitical premium. They highlight record ICE gasoil cracks, extreme backwardation and ongoing disruptions to Middle East and Russian diesel exports. ING expects middle distillate cracks to stay highly elevated and volatile […]
XAG/USD slips below $64.00 as inflation fears increase
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding Silver declines as a global bond selloff drove the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.80%, hitting its highest point since early 2025. This surge in yields reignited market anxieties […]
BoJ’s Ueda says no comment on daily moves, markets price in high likelihood of September rate hike
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday held talks with US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the sidelines of the G20, but giving no details on what was discussed. Ueda said central banks discussed the need for improved communication to achieve appropriate monetary policy as the global environment changes. He declined to comment on […]
KRW and MYR lead firmer profile vs USD – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong have recalibrated Asian FX forecasts slightly firmer against the US Dollar (USD), with more notable upgrades for KRW and MYR. They note stronger Korean domestic fundamentals, improved exporter flows and reduced capital outflow concerns, while Malaysia benefits from resilient growth, supportive external balances, fading political noise and […]
United States Treasury yields read Iran strikes as inflation
The 10-year Treasury yield trades near 4.79%, roughly four basis points higher and at its highest level since January 2025, in a fifth consecutive session of selling. The two-year moved further still, adding closer to five basis points to trade near 4.39%, and it did so as American forces began striking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps […]
Fed risks and election scenarios – TD Securities
TD Securities’ macro team, led by Jayati Bharadwaj, Howard Du and Linda Cheng, maintains a bearish view on the Dollar despite a hawkish market reaction to Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. They argue incoming US data still point to a September Fed hold, with the broader USD trend seen weaker into year-end as US midterm […]
Strong GDP underpins higher INR yields – MUFG
MUFG’s Michael Wan highlights India’s strong GDP data, with Q1 FY2026-27 growth at 7.8% year-on-year versus 7.1% consensus. Resilient domestic demand, robust credit growth and supportive fiscal policy underpin his view that Indian rates are likely to grind higher. The team maintains a trade idea to pay INR 5-year NDOIS as El Nino risks and […]
