Aggressive easing and currency risks – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Brazilian central bank to start its cutting cycle, with consensus looking for an initial move after a long hold at 15%. He sees scope for a 25 or 50 basis point cut and anticipates the pace to accelerate later in 2026. Commerzbank remains cautious on Brazilian Real strength given likely […]
Softer UK labour data keeps BoE easing bias – TD Securities
TD Securities analysts project further loosening in UK labour conditions, with employment falling, unemployment rising to its COVID peak of 5.3%, and wage growth easing but still elevated. They note this backdrop has previously supported Bank of England (BoE) easing, though near term focus may shift to inflation implications from Iran-related shocks rather than domestic […]
Growth risks rise with price shocks – Standard Chartered
Standard Chartered analysts Madhur Jha and Ethan Lester argue that sustained Oil price shocks have historically driven global inflation and often preceded global recessions. They highlight that a Brent move toward USD 135/bbl could shift market focus from inflation to growth risks. The authors stress that tighter central bank reactions to Oil shocks now add […]
EUR/USD struggles to extend recovery above 1.1550, Fed’s policy remains in focus
The EUR/USD pair faces slight pressure near 1.1550 during the European trading session on Wednesday after a two-day recovery move. The major currency pair struggles as the US Dollar strives to regain ground ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks […]
More upside likely amid hawkish RBA bets
The AUD/USD pair trades 0.15% higher at around 0.7115 during the late Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair rises as the Australian Dollar (AUD) trades broadly firm, following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy announcement on Tuesday, in which it raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) […]
Canadian Dollar holds steady ahead of Fed, BoC policy decisions
USD/CAD remains flat after posting little gains in the previous session, hovering around 1.3690 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair holds steady as traders remain cautious ahead of policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) later in the day. Traders are particularly focused on guidance from […]
Russia expands military cooperation with Iran — WSJ
Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of US forces in the region, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday. The source said that the support is designed to sharpen Iran’s ability to identify and strike American military assets […]
Range holds as fair value diverges – Scotiabank
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is flat against the Dollar (USD) but supported by elevated Oil prices and narrow yield spreads. They see USD/CAD fundamentally rich versus a fair value (FV) in the mid‑1.34s and expect a 1.3650–1.3720 range near term, with focus on Wednesday’s Fed and Bank […]
Struggles to extend recovery above 1.1530
The EUR/USD pair holds onto Monday’s gains slightly above 1.1500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the US Dollar (USD) has come under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s […]
Close split keeps May hike in play – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo note the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.10% in a narrow 5-4 decision, driven mainly by elevated domestic inflation and excess demand. They still expect another hike in May but stress that outcome is not assured, with Middle East conflict dynamics and inflation […]
