Stagnation to persist as growth model shifts – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Dr. Henry Hao argues China’s housing market remains in structural stagnation five years after the Evergrande crisis. National prices follow an L-shaped path, with a K-shaped divergence between Tier-1 and lower-tier cities. Weak demand, tighter funding and demographics mean real estate will no longer be China’s primary growth engine as Beijing redirects capital to […]
Dow Jones fades its own good news as the hawks take the last word
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trades near 52,250 on Friday, down nearly 300 points late in the month’s strangest session. The index slid to the 52,000 handle through the first half of the day, rallied more than 600 points on the strongest consumer sentiment reading since February, and has spent the afternoon handing the […]
Swiss Franc holds gains as Middle East tensions cap USD/CHF rebound
USD/CHF trades around 0.8070 at the time of writing on Friday, down 0.22% on the day. The pair remains under pressure as safe-haven demand for the Swiss Franc (CHF) offsets modest support for the US Dollar (USD) following stronger-than-expected US consumer sentiment data. The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 54.4 in […]
New Zealand Dollar dips as US-Iran tensions lift safe-haven US Dollar
NZD/USD declines on Friday, trading around 0.5830 at the time of writing, down 0.19% on the day, as investors seek safe-haven assets following a fresh wave of US strikes against Iran. The US Dollar (USD) benefits from the renewed risk-off mood, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) remain under pressure. The […]
Rates on hold but tightening bias – Nordea
Nordea’s Jan von Gerich expects the European Central Bank to leave policy rates unchanged at the July meeting, describing it as a pause rather than a shift in stance. Lower-than-expected June inflation and volatile Middle East developments reduce urgency for an immediate move. However, Nordea still anticipates a 25bp hike in September and sees further […]
WTI price edges higher to near $79.00 as US-Iran war escalation threatens oil flows
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.00 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The WTI heads for its biggest weekly advance since April as rising tensions in the Middle East raise fears of oil supply disruption. The BBC reported on Thursday that the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that […]
Chinese Yuan loses as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar
USD/CNH gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 6.7760 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair appreciates as the US Dollar (USD) receives support from escalating developments surrounding conflicts in the Middle East. Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the critical Red […]
Current policy is well positioned to respond, based on incoming data
Federal Reserve (Fed) Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that the current policy stance should support the job market and allow inflation to resume decline toward 2% as tariff effects and energy prices pass through, Reuters reported on Thursday. He added that in a scenario where inflation does not start cooling, it could be appropriate to reconsider […]
Thai Baht: Overvaluation points to weakness against US Dollar
MUFG’s Lloyd Chan notes that softer US inflation data has weakened the Dollar and lowered Fed rate hike expectations, but USD/THB has still broken above 33.50. He highlights Thailand’s low carry, deteriorating terms of trade from higher Oil prices, increased growth risks from Middle East tensions, and valuation metrics indicating the Baht remains modestly overvalued, […]
Euro edges lower as Yen firms on risk aversion, ECB hike in view
EUR/JPY trades around 185.80 at the time of writing on Thursday, little changed on the day after reaching a one-month high earlier this week. The pair is edging slightly lower as the Japanese Yen (JPY) regains some footing, although expectations of further monetary tightening by the European Central Bank (ECB) continue to provide underlying support […]
