Neutral rate debate supports gradual gains – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to deliver two further rate hikes in 2026, taking policy closer to a rising neutral rate and supporting a modest Japanese Yen appreciation versus Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR) in the second half of the year. He also projects USD/JPY and EUR/JPY to edge lower from […]
Inflation focus into CPI release – TD Securities
TD Securities’ Global Strategy Team highlights that United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key event, with core inflation expected to rise 0.27% m/m and headline CPI to jump 0.90% m/m as higher Oil prices feed through. They note markets may look through any temporary weakness, while a stronger print could intensify inflation […]
War burden and spending power – UBS
UBS economist Paul Donovan discusses how US March consumer price inflation highlights US consumers’ war-related burden and affordability concerns. He notes that inflation perceptions are driven by frequent purchases like food and fuel, and that concentrated inflation in categories such as furniture may limit broader damage to spending power. Donovan also links affordability to political […]
Ceasefire bounce faces oil and Fed headwinds – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Lloyd Chan argues that Asia FX gains on ceasefire hopes are running ahead of fundamentals, as Oil retains a structural floor and US yields stay elevated. He highlights that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued and war-risk premia high, reinforcing US Dollar strength and suggesting Asia FX relief […]
USD/KRW holds intraday gains around 1,480 as BoK advocates wait mode amid Iran risks
The USD/KRW pair holds onto its early gains around 1,478.00 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The pair trades firmly as the South Korean Won (KRW) weakens after the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) monetary policy announcement, in which the central bank left interest rates at 2.5%, as expected, and guided officials advocate a “wait […]
When are the China’s CPI, PPI and how could they affect AUD/USD?
China’s CPI, PPI Overview The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) will publish its data for March at 01.30 GMT. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a rise of 1.2% YoY in March, compared to 1.3% in February. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to show an increase of 0.4% […]
NZD/USD surges as geopolitics and Fed stance favor Kiwi
The NZD/USD pair is trading muted near 0.5860 on Friday, after climbing for four straight days, hovering near recent highs as the US Dollar (USD) remains supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions and a cautious Federal Reserve outlook. The breakdown in communication between the United States and Iran, alongside ongoing military activity and uncertainty […]
Geopolitics and cautious positioning – MUFG
MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights that Asian currencies have held up alongside a weaker Dollar despite renewed tensions around the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East. He stresses that physical Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained and advises clients to stay cautious on risk and hedge exposure to vulnerable […]
Pricing disconnect persists – BNY
BNY Strategist Geoff Yu argues that European rate markets still discount too many hikes for the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) despite an improvement in global risk sentiment following the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. He highlights that current futures pricing remains well above levels at the start of the […]
US GDP expands at annual rate of 0.5% in Q4 vs 0.7% expected
The United States’ (US) real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 0.5% in the fourth quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis’ third estimate showed on Thursday. This print followed the 0.7% growth announced in the previous estimate and came in below the market expectation of 0.7%. “Real GDP was revised […]
