BSP starts new hiking cycle – Commerzbank
Commerzbank highlights that BSP raised its policy rate by 25bp to 4.50%, signalling the start of a new tightening cycle to anchor inflation expectations. Despite a hawkish tone and higher inflation forecasts, the Peso underperforming regional peers since the Iran war as the Philippines remains highly exposed to Middle East energy prices. Rate hike fails […]
Upside risks as Hormuz crisis persists – OCBC
OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong flag slight upside risks for USD/SGD as the Hormuz standoff weighs on risk appetite and imported cost pressures. While Singapore Dollar (SGD) remains a regional defensive currency, they note fading bearish momentum and rising RSI on USD/SGD, alongside expectations that Singapore inflation will accelerate toward 2% as […]
Upside risks widen on fiscal concerns – MUFG
Lloyd Chan at MUFG highlights that USD/IDR has broken to fresh highs, overshooting earlier expectations for near-term stabilization. The move is attributed more to domestic confidence and fiscal uncertainty than broad US Dollar (USD) strength. While upside risks have increased, MUFG also flags growing signs of Rupiah undervaluation and potential constraints from Bank Indonesia’s policy […]
Inflation shock risk from Hormuz blockade – MUFG
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny argues that the ongoing United States (US) blockade in the Strait of Hormuz is building a significant inflation shock for the US and globally, with Oil and input costs surging. He notes that President Trump’s strategy of squeezing Iran’s energy revenues is time‑consuming and politically costly, and expects rising inflation and global […]
Higher path feeding BoC inflation forecasts – TD Securities
TD Securities strategists expect the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) to embed significantly higher Oil assumptions, with Brent at USD 90 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at USD 85, versus a prior USD 55 WTI baseline. They see this driving a temporary rise in headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) toward 3% […]
Tight gas outlook and conflict risks support prices – BNY
BNY’s Bob Savage reports that Oil remains a key market barometer as the Iran war disrupts supply, with Brent up sharply and the International Energy Agency warning that the global natural gas market will stay tight for at least two more years. The conflict has removed significant oil and LNG capacity, delaying new LNG expansion […]
Central bank is open to adjust monetary policy and made interventions
Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Martin Schlegel said at the SNB’s General Meeting during the European trading hours on Friday that the central bank has unrestricted room to maneuver on policy rate and made forex interventions. Additional remarks Middle East conflict will lead to subdued economic growth in Switzerland. Will adjust monetary policy if necessary. Higher […]
UK Retail Sales jump 0.7% MoM in March vs. 0.2% expected
Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, in the United Kingdom (UK) rebounded 0.7% month-over-month (MoM) in March after declining by a revised 0.6% in February, the latest data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. The market forecast was for a 0.2% growth in the reported month. The core Retail Sales, […]
Canadian Dollar steadies as US Dollar firms on safe-haven demand
USD/CAD remains flat following a three-day winning streak, trading around 1.3700 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair steadies as the US Dollar (USD) maintains its position as safe-haven demand increases amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the United States (US)–Iran conflict. Bloomberg reported on Thursday that the US military intercepted two Iranian oil supertankers attempting […]
US eyes targeting Iran’s Hormuz defenses if no ceasefire — CNN
US military officials are developing new plans to target Iran’s capabilities in the Strait of Hormuz in the event the current ceasefire with Iran fails, CNN reported on Thursday. According to multiple sources familiar with the matter, the options, among several sets of target types under consideration, include strikes with a particular focus on “dynamic targeting” of […]
