Growth risks and stimulus watch – TD Securities

TD Securities’ Alex Loo highlights that China’s July data showed weaker industrial production, modest retail sales and record-weak Fixed Assets Investment, reinforcing concerns about insufficient domestic demand. The report warns that if economic momentum keeps fading, Beijing risks missing its 2026 GDP target of 4.5–5.0% and may respond with stronger counter-cyclical measures and fresh stimulus […]

Bulls need a break above 0.8200 to regain momentum

USD/CHF rebounds on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) recovers from its early losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8112 after touching an intraday low of 0.8072, its lowest level in over a week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, […]

Sideways growth and sticky inflation – TD Securities

TD Securities economists Oscar Munoz and Eli Nir expect US output growth to move sideways in 2025 as the lingering Oil shock and Iran conflict create stagflationary risks, keeping the Fed on hold. They see GDP growth slightly below trend in 2026, with 2.1% Q4/Q4, unemployment near 4.3%, and only gradual disinflation resuming in 2027. […]