Key driver of UK inflation scenarios – Rabobank

Key driver of UK inflation scenarios – Rabobank

RaboResearch highlights Oil as the dominant input for UK monetary policy. The Bank of England’s central forecast assumes Oil prices fall from $76 to around $71, with inflation peaking near 3.2%, but Brent already trades above $90. A severe scenario with Oil at $100 implies inflation at 4% or higher, underscoring upside risks for UK […]

Fiscal and FX coordination on policy – DBS

Fiscal and FX coordination on policy – DBS

DBS Group Research economist Chua Han Teng analyzes Singapore’s latest SGD900mn fiscal support package and the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s (MAS) calibrated tightening of the Singapore Dollar (SGD) Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) band. The report highlights how complementary fiscal and monetary measures aim to tackle inflation and imported cost pressures while Singapore maintains a […]

FOMC repricing caps CTA upside – TD Securities

FOMC repricing caps CTA upside – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists explain that Gold has bounced after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged and Chair Warsh signaled tolerance for an inflation shock. However, they argue that shifting hike expectations from September to December does not materially change the outlook. Entrenched CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short positions require a move above […]

Strong GDP supports September ECB hike – BBH

Strong GDP supports September ECB hike – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad reports EUR/USD is consolidating after a rally driven by stronger-than-expected Eurozone Q2 GDP at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter. The recovery in Eurozone activity and above-target inflation reinforce expectations for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in September, though Haddad notes existing market pricing limits Euro (EUR) upside. Eurozone data backs […]