ECB expectations support EUR against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report that the Euro (EUR) is little changed near the low 1.16s as markets await Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a 25 bps hike and a hawkish tone are anticipated. They note supportive yield spreads and a fair value estimate around 1.1650, with technicals showing a […]

Risk premium sustained on Gulf disruptions – Rabobank

Rabobank’s Florence Schmit highlights that TTF Natural Gas remains supported by low European storage and disrupted Gulf LNG flows. The absence of meaningful U.S.-Iran progress keeps a structural risk premium in prices, with 2026 TTF seen averaging €60/MWh in Q4. For 2027, the base case is €42/MWh, but infrastructure damage could push TTF into a […]

Swiss Franc steadies as Fed hike expectations offset safe-haven flows

The USD/CHF pair flatlines near 0.8090 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Traders brace for crucial US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later this week.  The CME FedWatch tool showed probability hovering around 60.6% for another quarter-point Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike, whereas the Swiss National Bank […]