Societe Generale analysts observe USD/CNY trading below 6.80, with the Chinese Yuan at its strongest level since February 2023 ahead of the US/China summit. They attribute Yuan outperformance to safe-haven demand and solid trade data, while expecting only incremental outcomes from Trump’s visit, focused on trade discipline and limited confidence-building steps.

Safe-haven flows and trade surplus

“The Chinese yuan trades at the strongest level since February 2023, returning below 6.80/USD ahead of this week’s US/China summit. The outperformance of the Yuan in EM Asia this year has been more about China’s rising status as a safe-haven amid the geopolitical and energy storm.”

“Foreign trade data also continue to support the currency. Exports climbed 14.1% yoy, lifting the surplus to $84.82bn in April.”

“The visit of Trump is relatively low on expectations, underscored by a scaled‑down CEO delegation compared to 2017 and late invites that reflect internal policy divisions. The agenda will prioritize trade discipline and a possible short extension of the October trade truce, rather than headline‑grabbing deal announcements.”

“China will likely press for relief from US technology export controls and greater policy certainty, while Washington is set to hold the line, keeping outcomes incremental while Iran and rare earth exports from China may also be discussed.”

“Commercially, discussions may centre on narrow, symbolic deliverables, notably a prospective Boeing aircraft order, pointing to modest confidence‑building steps rather than a reset in bilateral ties.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)