Nordea’s Sara Midtgaard reports that the Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged and signalled only gradual easing, with one 25 bp cut projected in both 2026 and 2027. She notes Powell’s emphasis on data dependence and geopolitical uncertainty, and Nordea’s base case that the Fed keeps rates on hold over the next two years with no rush to cut.

Fed projects very gradual future easing

“The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged in the 3.5-3.75 percent range, broadly in line with expectations. The updated projections signal only gradual easing, with the median forecast implying one 25 bp rate cut in both 2026 and 2027, broadly unchanged from the projections published in December.”

“He (Fed Chair Powell) also noted that policymakers would not cut rates unless there is clear progress in bringing inflation back towards target. The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East increases uncertainty around both inflation and economic activity, meaning the Fed stands ready to adjust policy if incoming data warrant it.”

“We still expect the Fed to keep rates on hold over the next two years, and based on recent signals, they do not appear to be in any rush to cut rates in the near term.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)